As Donald Trump's return to the White House gains momentum, European leaders face mounting concerns over how his possible re-election could impact an already fragile political and economic landscape. The European Union (EU), already grappling with internal divisions, may soon have to brace for new financial pressures and security challenges if Trump implements some of his most controversial proposals.
Among the most immediate concerns is the prospect of a tariff war. Trump has advocated for a blanket 10% tariff on all imported goods, a move that, according to a recent study by the London School of Economics, would reduce EU GDP by 0.1%. However, the impact on Germany, whose economy is heavily dependent on exports to the U.S., could be twice as severe. With additional tariffs on car imports potentially on the table, Europe’s largest economy stands to take a significant hit, which could deepen economic disparities within the EU and make it harder for Brussels to mount a unified response.
Trump's presidency also threatens to shake up Europe’s defense landscape. He has previously pressed EU countries to take on more financial responsibility for their defense, arguing that the U.S. is shouldering an outsized share of NATO’s costs. While most EU NATO members have recently increased their defense spending to meet the 2% of GDP target, the bloc’s collective defense budget still stands at about $400 billion this year—significantly less than the United States' projected $755 billion. Reducing or withdrawing U.S. military support could force Europe to address its security needs more independently.
The situation in Ukraine could be Europe’s most immediate concern, especially if Trump follows through on his campaign statements about reducing U.S. military support for Kyiv. This shift could leave the EU in a precarious position, managing a war on its eastern flank with fewer resources and an uncertain path forward. Although Trump has expressed interest in brokering peace with Russian President Vladimir Putin, analysts suggest that a quick resolution to the conflict remains unlikely.
The EU does have the financial capacity to continue supporting Ukraine, which estimates it will need up to 40 billion euros annually, about 0.2% of the EU’s GDP, to sustain its defense efforts. However, replacing the extensive military aid previously supplied by Washington would be a formidable challenge.
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